Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability: Reviving Allais's Lost Theory of Psychological Time

Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability: Reviving Allais's Lost Theory of Psychological Time

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Eric Barthalon applies the neglected theory of psychological time and memory decay of Nobel Prize–winning economist Maurice Allais (1911–2010) to model investors’ psychology in the present context of recurrent financial crises. Shaped by the behavior of the demand for money during episodes of hyperinflation, Allais’s theory proves economic agents perceive the flow of clocks’ time and forget the past at a context-dependent pace: rapidly in the presence of… (more)