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A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers : The Case of Poland and the Euro Area

by Michal Andrle & Roberto Garcia-Saltos

This paper studies economic and financial spillovers from the euro area to Poland in a two-country semi-structural model. The model incorporates various channels of macrofinancial linkages and cross-border spillovers....


Are Non-Euro Area EU Countries Importing Low Inflation from the Euro Area?

by Plamen Iossifov & Jiri Podpiera

The synchronized disinflation across Europe since end-2011 raises the question of whether non-euro area EU countries are affected by the undershooting of the euro area inflation target. To shed light on this...


Food Inflation in India  : The Role for Monetary Policy

by Rahul Anand & Ding Ding

Indian food and fuel inflation has remained high for several years, and second-round effects on core inflation are estimated to be large. This paper estimates the size of second-round effects using an estimated...


Guatemala : 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guatemala

by International Monetary Fund. West Dept.

KEY ISSUES Context. Guatemala’s economy has performed solidly since the 2008–09 crisis. Output has converged to potential, inflation is under control, and macroeconomic policies remain prudent. However,...


Measuring External Risks for Peru : Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy

by Fei Han

This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China’s investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconomic...


Sweden : 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report;Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sweden

by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.

Sweden’s economy has re-gained speed, following supportive macroeconomic policies and strong household demand. Employment has been rising, but the labor force expanded even more, resulting in higher unemployment...


Trinidad and Tobago : 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Trinidad and Tobago

by International Monetary Fund. West Dept.

KEY ISSUES The economy is embarking on sustainable growth, but the main challenge will be to boost long-run growth by structural reforms and reorienting fiscal policy. Supply-side slowdowns in the energy sector...


Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda

by Luisa Charry & Pranav Gupta

We develop a simple semistructural model for the Rwandan economy to better understand the monetary policy transmission mechanism. A key feature of the model is the introduction of a modified uncovered interest...


Czech Republic: 2014 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Press Release; And Statement by the Executive Director for the Czech Repub

by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.

Growth is gaining momentum, led by strong external demand while domestic demand is also picking up. The central bank’s foreign exchange intervention policy has helped stem deflationary pressures but inflation...


Is Japan's Population Aging Deflationary?

by Derek Anderson & Dennis P. J. Botman

Japan has the most rapidly aging population in the world. This affects growth and fiscal sustainability, but the potential impact on inflation has been studied less. We use the IMF’s Global Integrated Fiscal...


Philippines : Selected Issues

by International Monetary Fund. Asia Dept

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after...


Japan :  2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; and Press Release

by International Monetary Fund. Asia Dept

KEY ISSUES Abenomics is gaining traction, but progress across the three arrows has been uneven and medium-term risks remain substantial. Inflation has risen, a consumption tax increase has been implemented,...


Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage

by Anton Korinek & Alp Simsek

We investigate the role of macroprudential policies in mitigating liquidity traps driven by deleveraging, using a simple Keynesian model. When constrained agents engage in deleveraging, the interest rate needs...


Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs

by Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain

The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial...


Monetary and Macroprudential Policies to Manage Capital Flows

by Juan Pablo Medina Guzman & Jorge Roldos

We study interactions between monetary and macroprudential policies in a model with nominal and financial frictions. The latter derive from a financial sector that provides credit and liquidity services that...


Euro Area Policies: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release; And Statement by the Executive Director

by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the euro area recovery is taking hold. Real output has expanded for four consecutive quarters, and financial market sentiment has improved markedly. Complementary...


Russian Federation: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Informational Annex; Press Release

by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.

KEY ISSUES AND RECOMMENDATIONS Context. The growth slowdown continued in 2013, reflecting pre-existing structural reasons, despite accommodative policies. The fallout from geopolitical tensions relating to Ukraine...


New Zealand: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release

by International Monetary Fund. Asia Dept

KEY ISSUES Outlook and risks The economic expansion is becoming increasingly embedded and broad-based, driven by supportive financial conditions, historically high commodity prices, resurgent construction activity...


Republic of Poland: 2014 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Poland

by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.

The economy is steadily recovering from a substantial slowdown in 2012–13, helped by improving conditions in main trading partners and a rebound in job creation and household consumption. Financial markets...


Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in the G7 Countries

by Bernardin Akitoby & Takuji Komatsuzaki

This paper investigates the impact of low or high inflation on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the G-7 countries. Our simulations suggest that if inflation were to fall to zero for five years, the average net...