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Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: Putting Together the Pieces

by Edward F. Buffie & Andrew Berg

We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation;...


Intra-Regional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic after All?

by Gustavo Adler & Sebastian Sosa

Shocks stemming from Brazil - the large neighbor in South America - have historically been a source of concern for policy-makers in other countries of the region. This paper studies the importance of Brazil’s...


A Tradeoff between the Output and  Current Account Effects of Pension Reform:

by Mr. Mario Catalan & Mr. Nicolas E. Magud

We compare the long-term output and current account effects of pension reforms that increase the retirement age with those of reforms that cut pension benefits, conditional on reforms achieving similar fiscal...


Fiscal Transparency, Fiscal Performance and Credit Ratings (PDF Download)

by Elif Arbatli & Julio Escolano

This paper investigates the effect of fiscal transparency on market assessments of sovereign risk, as measured by credit ratings. It measures this effect through a direct channel (uncertainty reduction) and...


Government Bonds and Their Investors: What Are the Facts and Do They Matter? (PDF Download)

by Jochen R. Andritzky

This paper introduces a new dataset on the composition of the investor base for government securities in the G20 advanced economies and the euro area. During the last decades, investors from abroad have increased...


Financing Growth in the WAEMU Through the Regional Securities Market:  Past Successes and Current Challenges:

by Mame Astou Diouf & Mr. Francois Boutin-Dufresne

The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) regional securities market saw increasing activity in the last decade, but still fell short of supplying sufficient long-term financing for growth-enhancing...


The Need for "Un-consolidating" Consolidated Banks' Stress Tests:

by Eugenio Cerutti & Mr. Christian Schmieder

The recent crisis has spurred the use of stress tests as a (crisis) management and early warning tool. However, a weakness is that they omit potential risks embedded in the banking groups' geographical structures...


What's in It for Me? A Primer on Differences between Islamic and Conventional Finance in Malaysia

by Olga Krasicka & Sylwia Nowak

What attracts conventional investors to Islamic financial instruments? We answer this question by comparing Malaysian Islamic and conventional security prices and their response to macrofinancial factors. Our...


Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows

by Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker

News - or foresight - about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the...


Striking an Appropriate Balance Among  Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in Cape Verde:

by Mr. Yibin Mu

Despite relatively fast economic growth over the past few years, Cape Verde's public debt to GDP ratio has risenrapidly. Achieving an appropriate balance among public investment, growth, and debt sustainability...


How Effective Is Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries? A Survey of the Empirical Evidence

by Prachi Mishra & Peter Montiel

This paper surveys the evidence on the effectiveness of monetary transmission in low-income countries. It is hard to come away from this review with much confidence in the strength of monetary transmission in...


Taxation and Leverage in International Banking:

by Ms. Grace Weishi Gu & Ruud A. de Mooij

This paper explores how corporate taxes affect the financial structure of multinational banks. Guided by a simple theory of optimal capital structure it tests (i) whether corporate taxes induce subsidiary banks...


Local Governments' Fiscal Balance, Privatization, and Banking Sector Reform in Transition Countries

by Ernesto Crivelli

Several transition economies have undertaken fiscal decentralization reforms over the past two decades along with liberalization, privatization, and stabilization reforms. Theory predicts that decentralization...


Monitoring Systemic Risk Based on Dynamic Thresholds (PDF Download)

by Kasper Lund-Jensen

Successful implementation of macroprudential policy is contingent on the ability to identify and estimate systemic risk in real time. In this paper, systemic risk is defined as the conditional probability of...


Banks' Liability Structure and Mortgage Lending During the Financial Crisis (PDF Download)

by Jihad Dagher & Kazim Kazimov

We examine the impact of banks’ exposure to market liquidity shocks through wholesale funding on their supply of credit during the financial crisis in the United States. We focus on mortgage lending to minimize...


The Relationship between the Foreign Exchange Regime and Macroeconomic Performance in Eastern Africa

by Janet Gale Stotsky & Manuk Ghazanchyan

This study examines the relationship between the foreign exchange regime and macroeconomic performance in Eastern Africa. The study focuses on seven countries, five of which decisively liberalized their foreign...


Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries (PDF Download)

by Niamh Sheridan & Patrizia Tumbarello

Regional integration of Pacific Island countries (PICs) with Australia, New Zealand, and emerging Asia has increased over the last two decades. PICs have become more exposed to the region’s business cycles,...


Inflation and Income Inequality:  Is Food Inflation Different?

by James P Walsh & Jiangyan Yu

There is an extensive literature noting that high inflation can add to income inequality, and a parallel literature assessing the effect of rising food prices on the poor. This paper attempts to combine these...


Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives: A Network Analysis of Contagion and Its Mitigation with Super-Spreader Tax:

by Ms. Sheri M. Markose

Financial network analysis is used to provide firm level bottom-up holistic visualizations of interconnections of financial obligations in global OTC derivatives markets. This helps to identify Systemically...


Too Much Finance? (PDF Download)

by Jean-Louis Arcand & Enrico Berkes

This paper examines whether there is a threshold above which financial development no longer has a positive effect on economic growth. We use different empirical approaches to show that there can indeed be "too...