Jeffrey, I got to the end of 'pick a winner' fearing that the storytelling won over the discipline. After the door was opened you were prepared to reassign probability to door 3, but not to door 2. Both doors should have been treated equally. First round probability for each of three doors is 1/3. Second round probability for each of two doors is 1/2. To choose to switch vs not to switch, is a new choice, independent of the first round. Opening one more door would naturally produce certainty… (more)

Jeffrey, I got to the end of 'pick a winner' fearing that the storytelling won over the discipline. After the door was opened you were prepared to reassign probability to door 3, but not to door 2. Both doors should have been treated equally. First round probability for each of three doors is 1/3. Second round probability for each of two doors is 1/2. To choose to switch vs not to switch, is a new choice, independent of the first round. Opening one more door would naturally produce certainty as to the whereabouts of the prize, and the probability for the selected door becomes 0 or 1, not remaining at 1/3.
Cheers, prochroma

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 07:07:59 +0200